MLB / mlb / live
HOU 0 / KCR 4HOUHouston Astros46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterStephen KolekConfirmed
HOU46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR54%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Stephen KolekKCR starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +116 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -120HOU / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total