MLB / mlb / live
HOU 8 / KCR 7HOUHouston Astros46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterNoah Cameron
HOU46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
KCR54%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Mike BurrowsHOU starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 bovada / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Noah CameronKCR starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanduel / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130HOU / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total