MLB / mlb / live
NYY 7 / KCR 0NYYNew York Yankees43%
KCRKansas City Royals57%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterGerrit Cole
Model pickKCR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterNoah Cameron
NYY43%ML -158
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
KCR57%ML +132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.2 pts
Model heavily favors KCR (57% vs market 42%) despite NYY having superior record (33-22 vs 22-33) and offense (4.5 RPG, .692 OPS vs 2.6 RPG, .518 OPS). Classic offense_defense_mismatch flag. Missing pitcher stats makes total assessment impossible. Lean NYY on fundamentals but lack of pitcher data prevents strong conviction.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-158 / +132NYY / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-121)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -104
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total