MLB / mlb / live
NYY 7 / KCR 0NYYNew York Yankees43%
KCRKansas City Royals57%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterGerrit Cole
Model pickKCR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterNoah Cameron
NYY43%ML -158
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
KCR57%ML +132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap15.8 pts
Model heavily favors KCR (57% vs market 42%) despite NYY having superior record (33-22 vs 22-33) and offense (4.5 RPG, .692 OPS vs 2.6 RPG, .518 OPS). Classic offense_defense_mismatch flag. Missing pitcher stats makes total assessment impossible. Lean NYY on fundamentals but lack of pitcher data prevents strong conviction.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-158 / +132NYY / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-121)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -104
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total