MLB / mlb / live
SEA 0 / KCR 5SEASeattle Mariners49%
KCRKansas City Royals51%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge Kirby
Model pickKCR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterStephen Kolek
SEA49%ML -126
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
KCR51%ML +108
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Model sees coin flip (50.6% KCR), market leans SEA at 55.2% implied. SEA offense much stronger (4.2 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.5/.518). Kirby's 1.50 ERA in limited IP is elite. Kolek lacks IP/ERA data despite 10 starts (data issue). Park factor 1.09 plus SEA's offense argues over 8.5.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-126 / +108SEA / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total