MLB / mlb / live
BOS 4 / KCR 3BOSBoston Red Sox46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterMichael Wacha
BOS46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
KCR54%ML -118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.6 pts
Wacha's 6.0 IP and 0.0 ERA across 10 starts is clearly incomplete data (< 1 IP/start average), making his quality unknowable. Early's 5.1 IP over 10 starts has the same problem. Market and model converge at ~53% KCR, but ace_matchup flag is spurious given the IP totals. Model projects 9.14 runs vs market 8.0 in a hitter park; lean over on total only.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -118BOS / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total