MLB / mlb / live
BOS 4 / KCR 3BOSBoston Red Sox46%
KCRKansas City Royals54%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterMichael Wacha
BOS46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
KCR54%ML -118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts
Wacha's 6.0 IP and 0.0 ERA across 10 starts is clearly incomplete data (< 1 IP/start average), making his quality unknowable. Early's 5.1 IP over 10 starts has the same problem. Market and model converge at ~53% KCR, but ace_matchup flag is spurious given the IP totals. Model projects 9.14 runs vs market 8.0 in a hitter park; lean over on total only.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118BOS / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total