MLB / mlb / live
BOS 7 / KCR 1BOSBoston Red Sox49%
KCRKansas City Royals51%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickKCR moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterBailey Falter
BOS49%ML -129
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
KCR51%ML +109
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.6 pts
Suarez has null stats across all categories—unclear if this is data issue or he hasn't pitched. Without away SP context, can't evaluate moneyline. Model's 9.0 total vs market 7.5 is large gap; park factor 1.09 and KCR's weak offense (3.3 RPG, .518 OPS) suggest lean over on total given discrepancy, but pass on side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-129 / +109BOS / KCR moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total