MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / KCR 1CLECleveland Guardians56%
KCRKansas City Royals44%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterCole Ragans
CLE56%ML +112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
KCR44%ML -135
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.0 pts
Model predicts 9.24 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.74-run gap flagged correctly. Ragans shows 9.0 ERA in 4.0 IP (extremely small sample), Cantillo 4.91 ERA in 3.67 IP (also thin). Model over-indexes hitter park (PF 1.09) without weighting pitcher sample noise. Market at 7.5 seems more defensible given starter uncertainty. CLE pick aligns with market slight dog at +122.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -135CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total