MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / KCR 1CLECleveland Guardians56%
KCRKansas City Royals44%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey Cantillo
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterCole Ragans
CLE56%ML +112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
KCR44%ML -135
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.9 pts
Model predicts 9.24 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.74-run gap flagged correctly. Ragans shows 9.0 ERA in 4.0 IP (extremely small sample), Cantillo 4.91 ERA in 3.67 IP (also thin). Model over-indexes hitter park (PF 1.09) without weighting pitcher sample noise. Market at 7.5 seems more defensible given starter uncertainty. CLE pick aligns with market slight dog at +122.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -135CLE / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total