MLB / mlb / live
LAA 1 / KCR 12LAALos Angeles Angels59%
KCRKansas City Royals41%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterWalbert Ureña
Model pickLAA moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterCole Ragans
LAA59%ML +128
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
KCR41%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.5 pts
Model favors LAA 58.6%, market has KCR at 57.9% — clear disagreement. Ragans' 9.0 ERA in 4 IP is absurdly small sample; Urena has 1.2 IP of data. Both pitcher profiles are noise. LAA's .860 OPS vs KCR's .518 OPS is a real 34-point gap. Lean LAA on offense, lean over on 8.5 given park factor 1.09 and thin pitching data.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152LAA / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total