MLB / mlb / live
LAA 9 / KCR 11LAALos Angeles Angels71%
KCRKansas City Royals29%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterReid Detmers
Model pickLAA moneyline71%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterSeth Lugo
LAA71%ML +102
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
KCR29%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time22.9 pts
Model likes LAA at 71% vs market 48%. Lugo's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is noise; Detmers' 17.36 K/9 in 4.7 IP equally suspect. LAA's .860 OPS vs KCR's .518 is real. Park runs hot (PF 1.09). Total lean over 8.5.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin2.5
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -120LAA / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total