MLB / mlb / live
BAL 8 / KCR 6BALBaltimore Orioles59%
KCRKansas City Royals41%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterChris Bassitt
Model pickBAL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterMichael Wacha
BAL59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
KCR41%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.2 pts
Model favors BAL at 58.6% but market has KCR at 54.5% — a 4pp gap. Bassitt has no resolved stats (null ERA/WHIP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty the model underweights. Wacha's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample noise. Market knows something about Bassitt we don't see in the data; lean KCR but low confidence.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132BAL / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total