MLB / mlb / live
BAL 8 / KCR 6BALBaltimore Orioles59%
KCRKansas City Royals41%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterChris Bassitt
Model pickBAL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterMichael Wacha
BAL59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
KCR41%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap13.1 pts
Model favors BAL at 58.6% but market has KCR at 54.5% — a 4pp gap. Bassitt has no resolved stats (null ERA/WHIP/K9), triggering structural uncertainty the model underweights. Wacha's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is microscopic sample noise. Market knows something about Bassitt we don't see in the data; lean KCR but low confidence.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132BAL / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total