MLB / mlb / live
BAL 5 / KCR 6BALBaltimore Orioles57%
KCRKansas City Royals43%
at Kauffman Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterShane Baz
Model pickBAL moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
KCRHome starterKris Bubic
BAL57%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
KCR43%ML -130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.5 pts
Model favors BAL 57.4% vs market's 46% (implied from +114). KCR offense is league-worst at 3.1 RPG/.518 OPS through 23 games. Bubic's missing stats and Baz's small sample (5.1 IP) make this murky. Market disagreement is large but BAL's offensive comparison is real.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -130BAL / KCR moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total