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ATL 6 / HOU 3
ATLAtlanta Braves29%
HOUHouston Astros71%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
ATL29%ML +114
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
HOU71%ML -136

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.4 pts

Model's 70.6% on HOU is 15 points above the market's 55.2% while picking the team with both the worse record (77-77 vs 90-64) and worse offense (3.6 RPG/.695 OPS vs 4.7/.789). Small lean to ATL at +119. Daikin's 0.811 park factor plus Holmes (3.49 ERA) and Wesneski (3.70, 1.13 WHIP) argues under 8.5, well below the model's 9.02.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -147 draftkings / U +124 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 draftkings / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -136ATL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total