MLB / mlb / live
ATL 4 / HOU 2ATLAtlanta Braves44%
HOUHouston Astros56%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
ATL44%ML +130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
HOU56%ML -154
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +122 draftkings / U -132 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +122 fanduel / U -150 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%over
O 7.532%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -154ATL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total