MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / HOU 2KCRKansas City Royals42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterCristian JavierConfirmed
KCR42%ML +140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML -166
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Daniel Lynch IVKCR starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -155 betmgm / U +128 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.559%over
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Cristian JavierHOU starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -166KCR / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total