MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / HOU 6KCRKansas City Royals38%
HOUHouston Astros62%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterSeth LugoConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline62%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterMiguel UllolaConfirmed
KCR38%ML +125
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
HOU62%ML -149
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.5
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +136 betonlineag / U -158 mybookieag5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Miguel UllolaHOU starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 0 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -149KCR / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total