MLB / mlb / live
KCR 2 / HOU 4KCRKansas City Royals42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260914_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
KCR42%ML +135
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML -162
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 betonlineag / U +102 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -162KCR / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+133)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total