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CHW 5 / HOU 1
CHWChicago White Sox47%
HOUHouston Astros53%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline53%Model 20260831_auto
HOUHome starterRonel BlancoConfirmed
CHW47%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
HOU53%ML -107

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts

Model lands on HOU despite the worse record (70-68 vs 72-65), worse offense (.695 vs .729 OPS) and the far weaker starter. Burke's 149 IP at 3.32 ERA and 9.72 K/9 is a real body of work; Blanco's 7.71 ERA over 23.3 IP is small-sample but not encouraging. Daikin Park at 0.81 supports under 8.5 even with Blanco's shaky form.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betmgm / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Ronel BlancoHOU starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -107CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total