MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / HOU 6CHWChicago White Sox46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
CHW46%ML +114
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML -132
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -132CHW / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total