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OAK 0 / HOU 4
OAKOakland Athletics46%
HOUHouston Astros54%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJ.T. GinnConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
HOUHome starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
OAK46%ML +154
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML -184

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.8 pts

Market prices HOU at 62.5% while the model has 53.7%; the pitching matchup supports the lower number, with Ginn at 3.53 ERA over 127.3 IP against Wesneski's 5.16 ERA in only 22.7 IP. HOU's 3.5 RPG offense limits the case for laying -177, so OAK at +161 is the value side without conviction. Daikin at 0.81 park factor makes the model's 9.17 total look high against a market 8.0 — under.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
J.T. GinnOAK starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 bovada / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -104 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+154 / -184OAK / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+119)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -108
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total