MLB / mlb / live
LAA 18 / HOU 3LAALos Angeles Angels43%
HOUHouston Astros57%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLAAAway starterGrayson RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
LAA43%ML +160
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
HOU57%ML -191
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Grayson RodriguezLAA starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 fanduel / U -110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.576%under
O 5.562%under
O 6.547%under
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+160 / -191LAA / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total