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SEA 3 / HOU 2
SEASeattle Mariners45%
HOUHouston Astros55%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryan WooConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
SEA45%ML +110
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
HOU55%ML -127

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.3 pts

Model (55.1%) and market (55.4% implied) agree on Houston, so the side is uncontroversial. The total is the disagreement: 9.07 predicted against a 7.5 line in a 0.81 park factor venue with Brown (3.68 ERA, 9.47 K/9) and Woo (4.15 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). Daikin's suppression plus two solid starters points under, not over.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.8
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -103 betonlineag / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -118 draftkings / U +100 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -127SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.8O -111 / U -113
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total