MLB / mlb / live
SEA 10 / HOU 5SEASeattle Mariners44%
HOUHouston Astros56%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260810_auto
HOUHome starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
SEA44%ML +106
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
HOU56%ML -125
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +107 betrivers / U -113 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 fanduel / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -125SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total