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TOR 2 / HOU 7
TORToronto Blue Jays52%
HOUHouston Astros48%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
HOUHome starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
TOR52%ML +120
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
HOU48%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.0 pts

Model takes TOR despite the worse record (53-60) and 3.7 RPG, triggering the offense/defense mismatch flag; market has HOU at 54.6%. Yesavage (3.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) is clearly the better arm over Wesneski (4.76 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), so I won't push hard on HOU. Daikin Park at 0.811 makes the model's 8.86 total look high versus the 8.5 line; under is the cleaner side.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betonlineag / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -161 draftkings / U +130 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -145TOR / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -118
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total