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BAL 5 / HOU 2
BALBaltimore Orioles54%
HOUHouston Astros46%

at Daikin Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260713_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
BAL54%ML +105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU46%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Model leans BAL 54.4%, market nearly even at 51.7% HOU. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.81) suppresses totals; model's 9.10 overshoots market 8.5 by 0.6 runs. Brown's 9.93 K/9 in 35.3 IP and Young's solid 3.42 ERA over 84.3 IP suggest under. BAL comparison thin, lean only.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 draftkings / U -107 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 betmgm / U -141 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 7.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.542%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125BAL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total