MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / HOU 2BALBaltimore Orioles49%
HOUHouston Astros51%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260713_auto
HOUHome starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
BAL49%ML -110
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
HOU51%ML -110
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +108 betrivers / U -120 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -138 fanduel / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -110BAL / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-174)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -104 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total