MLB / mlb / live
DET 2 / HOU 4DETDetroit Tigers48%
HOUHouston Astros52%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260616_auto
HOUHome starterPeter LambertConfirmed
DET48%ML -108
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
HOU52%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Peter LambertHOU starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -110DET / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-181)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total