MLB / mlb / live
CLE 3 / HOU 9CLECleveland Guardians45%
HOUHouston Astros55%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
HOUHome starterTatsuya ImaiConfirmed
CLE45%ML +106
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
HOU55%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U -109 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tatsuya ImaiHOU starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 11 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanduel / U +130 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%over
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+106 / -125CLE / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total