MLB / mlb / live
CLE 8 / HOU 1CLECleveland Guardians43%
HOUHouston Astros57%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline57%Model 20260616_auto
HOUHome starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
CLE43%ML +130
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
HOU57%ML -155
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 draftkings / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betonlineag / U +116 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -155CLE / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total