MLB / mlb / live
DET 2 / HOU 4DETDetroit Tigers48%
HOUHouston Astros52%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260616_auto
HOUHome starterHunter BrownConfirmed
DET48%ML +143
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
HOU52%ML -173
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 draftkings / U -115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -124 fanduel / U +110 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+143 / -173DET / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total