MLB / mlb / live
PIT 5 / HOU 1PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared Jones
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterKai-Wei Teng
PIT42%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML -113
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Model has HOU 58% but market is coin flip (HOU -108). PIT is 33-29 vs HOU 28-35; model picks the worse team. Daikin park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Jones has no season ERA/IP data despite 10 starts - stat resolution issue undermines total confidence. Lean PIT, under on venue alone.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -113PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-159)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total