MLB / mlb / live
MIL 2 / HOU 0MILMilwaukee Brewers49%
HOUHouston Astros51%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterTatsuya Imai
MIL49%ML -200
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
HOU51%ML +165
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.9 pts
Model has HOU 51% vs market's 35% — massive disagreement in extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81). Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic; Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA with 19.8 K/9 in 5.0 IP is elite. MIL's .972 OPS crushes HOU's .695. Model total of 9.16 vs market 7.5 ignores park suppression and ace mismatch. Take MIL and under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-200 / +165MIL / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total