MLB / mlb / live
PIT 9 / HOU 11PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul Skenes
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterSpencer Arrighetti
PIT46%ML -145
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.0 pts
Model has HOU 53.5% vs market's 41.5% — a 12-point gap flagged as structural miss. PIT is 33-28 with better offense (6.1 RPG, .710 OPS) vs HOU 27-35 (5.5 RPG, .695 OPS). Extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81) suppresses totals; market at 7.5 is reasonable, model's 8.92 overestimates. Skenes' 67.5 ERA is artifact of 0.2 IP sample — ignore. Fade model, take PIT and under.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-145 / +120PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -104 / U -116
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total