MLB / mlb / live
PIT 10 / HOU 6PITPittsburgh Pirates40%
HOUHouston Astros60%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBubba Chandler
Model pickHOU moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterMike Burrows
PIT40%ML -102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
HOU60%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts
Model has HOU at 60% but market says coin flip (50.7%). Bubba Chandler's stats are entirely missing—data_quality says 'full' but IP/ERA/K9/WHIP are all null. Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is microscopic sample. Park factor 0.81 argues under on 9.0 total; lean that direction despite missing pitcher data.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-102 / -115PIT / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total