MLB / mlb / live
TEX 8 / HOU 0TEXTexas Rangers57%
HOUHouston Astros43%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterNathan Eovaldi
Model pickTEX moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterPeter Lambert
TEX57%ML -120
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
HOU43%ML +100
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.4 pts
Model sees TEX at 57% vs market 52%, modest comparison. Daikin Park factor 0.81 is extreme pitcher park—model total 9.33 runs overstates offense potential here. Eovaldi's 9.64 ERA in 4.2 IP is tiny sample noise; Lambert's missing counting stats raise data quality concerns. Lean TEX on side, under on park-suppressed total.
extreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +100TEX / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total