MLB / mlb / live
TEX 1 / HOU 4TEXTexas Rangers53%
HOUHouston Astros47%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTEXAway starterJacob deGrom
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterKai-Wei Teng
TEX53%ML -145
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
HOU47%ML +122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.6 pts
Model predicts 9.03 runs vs market 7.5 in an extreme pitcher park (PF 0.81). deGrom starting for TEX with missing stats likely means elite performance; model may underweight ace effect. HOU offense at 2.7 RPG is worst in sample. Market favors TEX -143, model agrees at 53%. Total disagree strongly with model—lean under.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-145 / +122TEX / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total