MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / HOU 4SEASeattle Mariners42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryce Miller
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterLance McCullers Jr.
SEA42%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML +105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.8 pts
Market favors SEA at 53.7% implied, model has HOU at 58.1%—an 11.8pp gap. SEA's superior offense (4.0 RPG, .793 OPS vs 3.0 RPG, .695 OPS) and better record (21-22 vs 16-27) make model's HOU lean structurally suspect. Daikin Park at 0.81 PF is extreme pitcher-friendly; market total 9.0 vs model 8.74 is reasonable convergence. Side with market on SEA, lean under on suppressed park.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +105SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total