MLB / mlb / live
SEA 8 / HOU 3SEASeattle Mariners46%
HOUHouston Astros54%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLuis Castillo
Model pickHOU moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterMike Burrows
SEA46%ML -126
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
HOU54%ML +107
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Model picks HOU at 53.6% vs market 46.5%, but SEA has better record (21-23 vs 17-27) and offense (4.1 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.8 RPG, .695 OPS). Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Extreme park (PF 0.81) argues under on 9.0 total. Defer to market on side.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-126 / +107SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -119 / U -103
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total