MLB / mlb / live
SEA 10 / HOU 2SEASeattle Mariners49%
HOUHouston Astros51%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterBryan Woo
Model pickHOU moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterTatsuya Imai
SEA49%ML -151
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
HOU51%ML +127
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts
Market favors SEA at 57.2% implied, model has HOU coinflip at 50.6%. Imai's 13.50 ERA in 2.2 IP is catastrophic small-sample noise; Woo's 3.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is early-season but credible. Daikin Park factor of 0.81 is extreme pitcher-friendly. Model total 8.93 vs market 8.5 ignores park context. SEA side, lean under.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-151 / +127SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total