MLB / mlb / live
SEA 3 / HOU 1SEASeattle Mariners42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterGeorge Kirby
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterPeter Lambert
SEA42%ML -140
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
HOU58%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.0 pts
Model has HOU at 57.5% but market implies SEA 56.5% — a 14-point gap flags structural miss. Kirby's 1.50 ERA in 60 IP is elite; Lambert's missing rate stats suggest fallback uncertainty. Daikin's 0.81 park factor screams under at extreme-park venue; model total 8.85 vs market 9.0 aligns but both should be lower.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-140 / +120SEA / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -106
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total