MLB / mlb / live
LAD 8 / HOU 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers42%
HOUHouston Astros58%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickHOU moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterSteven Okert
LAD42%ML -205
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability36%Selected moneyline pick
HOU58%ML +170
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap22.0 pts
Model has HOU at 57.5% vs market's 35.5% — a 22-point gap, the largest disagreement type. Okert has 2.2 IP across 4 'starts' (opener role), not a true starter. Yamamoto is a legitimate ace. Daikin Park factor 0.81 suppresses scoring. Market correctly prices LAD as road favorite; model misread Okert's bulk role.
Large model-market gapextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-205 / +170LAD / HOU moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total