MLB / mlb / live
STL 7 / HOU 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%
HOUHouston Astros47%
at Daikin Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterAndre Pallante
Model pickSTL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
HOUHome starterLance McCullers Jr.
STL53%ML +120
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
HOU47%ML -146
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.4 pts
Market favors HOU at 56.3% vs model's STL 53.1%—an 8.8pp gap triggers the disagreement flag. Daikin Park's 0.81 run factor is extreme suppression. Missing pitcher stats prevent assessment of SP quality, but the park alone argues under on the 9.0 total. Defer to market on side given structural uncertainty.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -146STL / HOU moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total