MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / DET 2PITPittsburgh Pirates55%
DETDetroit Tigers45%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
DETHome starterRiver RyanConfirmed
PIT55%ML +100
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
DET45%ML -118
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 draftkings / U +112 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
River RyanDET starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -106 betonlineag / U -119 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 2.577%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118PIT / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -1
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total