MLB / mlb / live
PIT 3 / DET 4PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
DETDetroit Tigers54%
at Comerica Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterKirby YatesConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
DETHome starterJustin VerlanderConfirmed
PIT46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
DET54%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.5
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kirby YatesPIT starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.542%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Justin VerlanderDET starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +110 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120PIT / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total