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WSN 4 / DET 2
WSNWashington Nationals41%
DETDetroit Tigers59%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterRichard LoveladyConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
WSN41%ML +145
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET59%ML -175

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model 59.2% and market 61.3% essentially agree on Detroit; no comparison to exploit but the side is defensible. Valdez brings 168.7 IP of workload at a 4.06 ERA against Lovelady, who has only 32.7 IP across 5 starts with a 1.84 WHIP and a short leash. That points to early bullpen exposure for Washington, so the 7.5 total looks low even if the model's 8.97 is aggressive.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Richard LoveladyWSN starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +127 draftkings / U -154 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+145 / -175WSN / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total