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LAD 1 / DET 2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers51%
DETDetroit Tigers49%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterBlake SnellConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
DETHome starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
LAD51%ML -186
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
DET49%ML +158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.8 pts

Model sits at 50.6% on LAD while the market implies ~62.5%; that gap looks like the model underweighting the Snell matchup against a Detroit lineup posting .582 OPS and 2.8 runs per game. Both starters under 3.50 ERA and Snell's 11.14 K/9 argue tight, low-scoring. Model's 8.88 total is nearly two runs above the 7.0 line and hard to justify here.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Blake SnellLAD starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -114 betonlineag / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.565%over
O 6.550%over
O 7.536%over
O 8.524%over
O 9.515%over
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +104 betonlineag / U -118 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-186 / +158LAD / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total