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LAD 6 / DET 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers53%
DETDetroit Tigers47%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
DETHome starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
LAD53%ML -159
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
DET47%ML +133

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.9 pts

Market has LAD near 62% while the model sits at 53.5% — the market looks right here. Glasnow (3.02 ERA, 11.28 K/9, 0.87 WHIP) against a Detroit offense at 2.2 RPG and .582 OPS is a clear mismatch versus Valdez's 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. No price value at -175, so standard only. Model's 8.98 total sits well above the 7.5 line despite that offensive profile; under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler GlasnowLAD starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +136 fanduel / U -160 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Framber ValdezDET starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -141 betonlineag / U +124 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-159 / +133LAD / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total