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TBR 1 / DET 4
TBRTampa Bay Rays41%
DETDetroit Tigers59%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterCasey LeguminaConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
DETHome starterJackson JobeConfirmed
TBR41%ML -132
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
DET59%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.0 pts

TBR is 78-53 with a .802 OPS vs Detroit's .582 and 3.6 RPG. Seymour's 10.92 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP over 101 IP outclass Jobe, who has only 14 IP with a 4.5 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Model's 9.14 total is 1.6 above the 7.5 market line; with two weak offenses I side with the market and lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Casey LeguminaTBR starter / away
Projected K2.0Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%over
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jackson JobeDET starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -120 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +110TBR / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total