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CLE 0 / DET 3
CLECleveland Guardians55%
DETDetroit Tigers45%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
DETHome starterKeider MonteroConfirmed
CLE55%ML -116
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
DET45%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model (55.1%) and market (-117) both favor Cleveland, so the mismatch flag is less alarming: Messick's 2.57 ERA and 8.96 K/9 over 136.7 IP outclass Montero's 3.38/6.33. Comerica is neutral (1.016), but both starters under 3.50 argues the market's 8.0 is fair and the model's 9.2 is too high.

ace matchupoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +102 fanduel / U -116 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Keider MonteroDET starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -170 bovada / U +139 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 2.576%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-116 / +100CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total