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CHW 4 / DET 3
CHWChicago White Sox43%
DETDetroit Tigers57%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
DETHome starterTroy MeltonConfirmed
CHW43%ML +125
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
DET57%ML -147

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.1 pts

Model (56.8%) and market (56.6%) agree on Detroit, so no comparison dispute. Melton's 1.46 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 80 IP is a substantial sample and outclasses Kay's 3.96 ERA/1.34 WHIP. The model's 8.66 total sits over a run above the 7.5 line despite a neutral park and the better starter at home; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -136 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +114 fanduel / U -118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+125 / -147CHW / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -111
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total