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CLE 4 / DET 6
CLECleveland Guardians47%
DETDetroit Tigers53%

at Comerica Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
DETHome starterDrew AndersonConfirmed
CLE47%ML +124
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
DET53%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Model offers no side here and the market is near pick'em at -122 (53.8%), so only a slight lean to Detroit at home behind Anderson's 10.43 K/9. On the total, the model's 9.30 sits 1.3 runs over the market's 8.0 despite both offenses posting sub-.610 OPS and Bibee carrying a 1.13 WHIP in 138 IP; Comerica's 1.02 park factor doesn't justify the gap. Lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -110 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Drew AndersonDET starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +135 betonlineag / U -151 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+124 / -145CLE / DET moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total